Nobody can tell you that you will win — not this site, not a lawyer on a first call, and certainly not a tool that outputs a percentage. Your issuer decides your dispute from the documents both sides submit, under rules written by the card networks. The honest version of the question is: does my situation fit a category the networks recognize, can I prove it better than the merchant can disprove it, and am I still inside the deadlines? If all three answers are yes, you have what practitioners call a strong case. That is a real, assessable thing — it is just not a guarantee. Our Case Checker scores exactly those three factors and refuses to do more.
Every chargeback is filed under a reason code from a closed list: Visa's Dispute Categories 10 (fraud), 11 (authorization), 12 (processing errors) and 13 (consumer disputes); Mastercard's 48xx family; Amex's lettered codes. If your problem does not map to a code, there is nothing to file — and the most common non-mapping problem is buyer's remorse, which has no code on any network. Category fit also dictates what counts as proof (next factor), which is why matching your situation to the right family matters before anything else.
A dispute is a paper contest. The merchant will be asked for their records: delivery scans, tracking, usage logs, IP addresses, signed terms, your cancellation — or lack of one. You win the categories where your paper beats theirs: a dated cancellation confirmation against charges that came after it; a statement with no credit line against a written refund promise; tracking that shows nothing arrived against a merchant who has no delivery proof to send. You lose where their paper beats yours: delivery to your address for a "never arrived" claim, usage logs for a service you said you never used.
The network window (typically ~120 days from the transaction for Visa/Mastercard consumer disputes) and, in the US, the legal window (billing errors generally reported within 60 days of the statement under the Fair Credit Billing Act for credit, and Regulation E for debit) run independently. Miss both and even a provable case usually cannot be filed. This is why "I'll deal with it later" loses more good disputes than bad facts do.
More detail on the losing patterns — and what to do instead — is in When NOT to File a Chargeback.
A provisional credit is not a win. After your issuer credits you, the merchant can submit representment — their evidence package — and the issuer can reverse the credit if the merchant's paper is better. Cases are actually decided here, which is why experienced filers keep their evidence organized even after the money comes back, and why answering the issuer's follow-up letter (with anything the merchant got wrong) matters. If you reach that stage and lose, see our guide to denied disputes.
There is no single official figure, and precise percentages quoted without a source are marketing. Outcomes vary enormously by category: unauthorized-fraud and documented non-delivery claims succeed far more often than remorse or undocumented description claims. Your odds are set by your category, your evidence versus the merchant's, and your timing — not by a global average.
Because cases are decided on their own paperwork. Different issuers weigh evidence differently, merchants fight some cases and concede others, and small facts — a cancellation confirmation, a delivery scan, a missed document deadline — flip outcomes. Two disputes that sound identical are rarely identical in the file.
A genuine, honest dispute does not normally harm your credit score — under the FCBA you generally don't have to pay the disputed amount while it's investigated. The real risks are filing claims you know are inaccurate (first-party misuse), which can get the account closed, and losing, which means you owe the amount plus any accrued interest.
Sources (verified October 21, 2026): Fair Credit Billing Act, 15 U.S.C. § 1666 (billing-error notice within 60 days of the statement); Regulation E, 12 C.F.R. §§ 1005.6, 1005.11 (debit error resolution and liability); Visa Core Rules dispute categories 10/12/13; Mastercard Chargeback Guide (reason codes 4837, 4853, 4860). Issuer procedures vary; your cardholder agreement controls your case.
